General Thierry Burkhard, who is stepping down as the head of France’s armed forces on September 1st, warns that Russia is rapidly rebuilding its military strength and could pose a serious threat to Europe within five years. He told The Economist that by 2030, Russia will have regained the capability to challenge Western countries, especially in Europe, militarily. This estimate is on the more immediate side compared to other military and intelligence assessments.
Burkhard has been sounding the alarm on Europe’s defense preparedness for some time. Back in 2021, before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he emphasized the need for Europe to prepare for high-intensity conflict. Now, he highlights Russia’s combat experience, vast resources, and resilience, noting that in a conflict, the Russian people might endure “five minutes longer” than their opponents, making them a formidable adversary.
Despite efforts by NATO allies to outline regional defense strategies, few European countries have met the necessary military readiness targets. Burkhard cautions that any reduction in American support would leave a significant gap in Europe’s defense capabilities. He also warns against the mindset that lacking full military resources means Europe cannot defend itself, urging stronger commitment to building up defense forces.
